It is a considerable change from the previous update which estimated the lost revenues as USD29.3 billion and took into account only losses associated with the Chinese market. As the virus has spread to over 80 countries since that moment, other air passenger markets have been affected with bookings being cancelled worldwide.
Currently, there is about a 25 percent drop in airline share prices what is even more than during the similar SARS crisis of 2003.
IATA now considers two possible scenarios with limited and extensive spread.
In the first case, the markets with over 100 confirmed COVID-19 patients will suffer most resulting in a sharp downturn followed by a V-shaped recovery profile. Globally, this scenario will lead to USD63 billion revenue loss out of which the Asian markets, including China, will contribute USD47 billion.
In the second case, which considers all markets with over 10 confirmed patients, the loss will be much greater at USD113 billion – on a scale equivalent to what the industry experienced in the Global Financial Crisis.
Africa and Southern America are included into neither scenario as currently none of these regions has reported over 10 COVID-19 cases.
IATA Estimates Financial Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak
News in Asia
For the global air transport industry, the COVID19 outbreak can result in USD63 billion – USD113 billion revenue losses, according to the latest IATA's updates of the pandemic financial impact.